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NURSING SHORTAGE LOOMING... STARTING IN 2012?
When the economy is up, RN supply declines.... when the economy tanks, the supply rises,... but what is interesting is that the RN turnover rate in 2011 averaged 14%...The "Great Recession" has temporarily eased the nursing shortage...Though AACN reports a 2010 rise of 5.7% in nursing school enrollments... the multi-year average increase is only growing fast enough to sustain the growing population and not sufficient to meet the projected nursing needs... for the 78 million baby boomers & 32 million 2014 newly insured... causing a soaring RN demand and chronic shortfalls.... Fitch foresees "...no relief..."
Add to this 25% of the nurses who between 2007-2011 became retirement eligible and in 2012 an additional 4% will be eligible...Due to the improving stock market & pensions, 55% of surveyed nurses...intend to retire between 2011 and 2020. In 2011, 3.3% retired and 4% are forecasted in 2012... Yet, with this coming silver tsunami of retirements, 57% of hospitals are unprepared for them. The BLS study continues to project a 22% increase in jobs between this year and 2018. Wanted Analytics reported that in 2011 hospitals and staffing agencies posted more than 121,000 new job ads and 54,000 in December alone... and 2012 is forecasted to increase.... PcW sees the shortage returning in 2012... Lawrence Shatkin's BLS research says the U.S. will need 103,900 more registered nurses every year... into the next decade"... starting in 2012 with 90,000- 100,000 and reaching 274,500 by 2015.
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NEW NSI SERVICE OFFERING - RN LIFELINE
NSI is proud to introduce “RN Lifeline”, a new free advertising service. RN Lifeline provides access to tens of thousands of experienced RNs, and includes advertising, sourcing, screening and referral of nurses at no charge. Simply put, and at no cost to you, we will advertise your positions on RN Lifeline and refer qualified RNs for your team to make hiring decisions, and for your convenience, we will input the information from your website. Call us today to learn how you can become a part of RN Lifeline.
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FITCH REPORTS: NOT-FOR-PROFIT HOSPITAL 2012 RATING "STABLE"
The Fitch debt-rating outlook is stable for not-for-profit hospitals, and foresees steady operating performance, muted capital spending, escalating regulatory challenges and further merger and acquisition activity. Fitch analysts expect the sector to maintain profitability levels consistent with this year through continued implementation of shared services, supply-chain improvements, ongoing operating efficiency initiatives, and reduction contract labor use in favor of employed staffing. Also wholesale acute-care hospital prices increased 0.6% in November after climbing 0.4% in October, according to the U.S. BLS. For the 12-month period ended in November, prices rose 2.6% compared with 1.7% in 2010.
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CFO WORRIES IN 2012
CFOs continue to grapple with a snaillike economic recovery and now have the added challenge of a federal deficit crisis that promises to put Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates in further jeopardy. So, in an atmosphere with uncertainty in the national economic picture, shaky patient volumes, [possibly increasing 4%] and reimbursement declines, finance leaders are understandably concerned about 2012. Still, they do expect some positive developments in opportunities for capital projects and see potential for improved relations with commercial payers.
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DOC FIX FOR 2 MONTHS
Medicare physician payment formula is aiming for a 2-year extension of current rates (27.4%) plus 1%, instead of a permanent overhaul, but Congress settles for 2 month extension. If physician Medicare rates are cut, 87% expect to restrict Medicare practices, 12% already restricting; 11% plan to retire, 35% seek employment in hospitals.
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DELOITTE: PHYSICIANS "NEGATIVE ON HEALTHCARE REFORM"
A Deloitte Center for Health Solutions study finds 73% of physicians "glum about the future" and 69% believe the "best and brightest" traditionally drawn to medicine will consider other professions. Only 27% surveyed believe the PPACA will reduce costs, while 33% think it will decrease disparities, and 50% say access will decrease due to hospital closures resulting from the law. Physicians are downbeat about the impact of Reform on their incomes, with 48% believing they will earn less, 48% saying income will remain unchanged and only 4% saying they will earn more. Only 35% of physicians gave the healthcare system an A/B grade, and 60% graded it C/D. Physicians perceive that the loss of autonomy is causing a negative view of overall quality of the healthcare system.
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CMS:REPORT CARDS FOR PHYSICIANS
CMS announced that Medicare will finally allow its extensive claims database to be used by employers, insurance companies and consumer groups to produce report cards on physicians and hospitals, thus improving current ratings of hospitals. By analyzing billing records, experts can glean such critical information as how often a doctor has performed a particular procedure and get a general sense of problems such as preventable complications. Doctors will be individually identifiable through the Medicare files, but personal data on their patients will remain confidential.
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CONGRESS CUTS $ CAN IMPACT RN SHORTAGE
A current House draft Bill for (FY) 2012 Labor-Health and Human Services Appropriations bill includes a $136 million cut (56%) to the Nursing Workforce Development Programs and a $185 million cut to the Health Professions Workforce Programs. The Title VII & VIII programs respectively are proven solutions to past nursing shortages. The current & expected shortage of RNs is expected to reach 300,000 and the nurse educator shortage poses real challenges.
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